The new normal of American “democracy” takes inspiration from fascism, reality TV, and occasionally, the Constitution, all at once. To list a few recent highlights, the country has seen a near government shutdown, a popular presidential candidate with four indictments (and a pretty killer mugshot), and a new school curriculum, PragerU, that denies climate change. And just when it seemed like this motion picture – sorry, country – had reached the climax of its drama, Speaker of the House, Kevin McCarthy was voted out in a dramatic showdown, pushing the House of Representatives to a screeching halt.
McCarthy’s Rocky Term
While the ousting of McCarthy may seem sudden, his term has been a series of unfortunate events. First, back in January, it took the House 15 rounds of voting to vote McCarthy in, and he was forced to make several concessions, creating the impression that he would promise anything to get support [1]. Then in May 2023, when the federal government was in danger of defaulting on its debt, the House GOP suggested that the government make severe spending cuts. Rather than doing this, McCarthy worked with Biden to raise the debt ceiling and make long-term spending goals, immediately generating severe criticism from conservatives, who also accused him of falsifying spending, and a brief shutdown of the House [2, 3]. When asked about the backlash, McCarthy responded with “I enjoy this conflict”, a creative take on trying to please those who oppose him [3].
What Made This Time Different?
At the start of each fiscal year (October), the Senate needs to pass 12 appropriation bills to keep the government running. Typically, as they approach the deadline, Congress passes a short-term bill that lasts into December and then groups the 12 bills into an “omnibus” that lasts through the year. Matt Gaetz, one of the House representatives, disliked this and, along with allies, wanted to return to passing each bill separately. Back in January, McCarthy promised to do so in return for their votes, and started off well, passing four individual bills by late September. However, as the deadline quickly approached and many of the bills were yet to be passed, McCarthy realized that they would have to pass a short-term bill to prevent a government shutdown. He was forced to negotiate with Democrats to draft a bill that both parties would agree to, particularly since the Senate has a Democrat majority [4]. Angered, Gaetz claimed that he would oust McCarthy if he continued to work with Democrats [3].
Either McCarthy thought it was an empty threat, or believed that the government shutting down would be worse than an argument among the party, but he went through with passing the bipartisan bill just hours before the deadline [5].
Gaetz returned just a day later. Accusing McCarthy of absolute betrayal of the GOP as well as of engaging in a secret deal with Biden to fund Ukraine, and claiming that he (just as Trump had suggested) should have let the government shut down, Gaetz proposed that McCarthy be voted out [6, 7]. Ironically, the proposal was only possible due to a rule change made by McCarthy in January to only require one person to propose a resolution to remove the speaker [9].
Ultimately, on October 3rd, Democrats, who believed McCarthy had catered to right-wing extremism in the House, in addition to Gaetz and seven republican allies, voted to oust McCarthy, bringing an end to his career [8].
What Now?
In the short term, a Speaker pro tempore, Patrick McHenry, has been appointed, yet until there is an actual new Speaker of the House, legislative action remains at a standstill [9]. Two main Republican candidates remain – Steve Scalise, the number two Republican in the House, and Jim Jordan, the chairman of the House Judiciary Committee. There are also less supported candidates, such as Kevin Hern, the head of a large Republican study committee [10]. Democrats are united behind Hakeem Jeffries, who is expected to rise as the House Minority leader [11].
On Tuesday, October 10th, each party will hold an informal vote to determine their party leader, and on the following day, all the nominees will battle it out on the House floor. Winning the final election for Speaker of the House requires an absolute majority, or over half of the votes in the House, and since Republicans have the majority in the House, it seems obvious that their party leader will quickly win (12).
Unfortunately, we’re talking about American politics – “obvious” can’t be trusted.
Let’s backtrack a bit.
Republicans are approximately 50-50 split between Jordan and Scalise, with a few stragglers backing Hern. Since getting the position of party leader just requires a simple majority (more than the other candidate), one of them should win fairly quickly. However, a group of Republicans in the House are petitioning to change the rules so that candidates must win a unanimous party vote to be the party leader. The idea is that a unified decision will prevent the same scale of chaos seen in McCarthy’s election and eventual downfall [12]. On the other hand, it makes the nomination process much more complicated as it is unlikely that every single Republican would agree on a candidate. Thus, the nomination would require days of candidates making compromises and trying to appeal to every representative.
However, even if nominations happen quickly or before the process changes, two issues remain:
[1] Representatives do not have to vote for either of the party leaders – rather, they can vote for anyone they want to, including Trump [13].
[2] Alternatively, representatives can vote for neither candidate by voting “present”. For every two candidates voting “present”, the number needed to win goes down by one [14].
Keep in mind that the Speaker of the House must win an absolute majority, not just more votes than the other candidates. Thus, due to the above two scenarios, there can be situations where none of the candidates win, requiring more rounds of voting. This is exactly what happened with McCarthy leading to the 15 chaotic rounds of voting [15]. During his race, there were no other major Republican nominees, and McCarthy started with 201/221 Republican votes (all Democrats voted for Jeffries), thus only requiring 16 more to win [16]. Conversely, this time there are three main republican candidates, Democrat leader Jeffries, and anyone else who representatives may decide to vote for, including Trump, meaning that it is unlikely that one Republican candidate will even start off with 201 votes.
Factoring in all the above, electing the next representative becomes a tedious, almost impossible task. Until then, no action in the House can be taken, drawing the country closer to another government shutdown, and further away from the likelihood that all 12 appropriation bills will be approved in time.
Doesn’t this sound more like a reality TV show rather than the events of a body that’s supposed to govern this country?
The political views/satire of this article represent the author and not necessarily the RDA or RHS.
Citations:
[1] https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/06/us/politics/house-speaker-vote-mccarthy.html
[4] https://www.cbsnews.com/news/why-oust-mccarthy-matt-gaetz-remove-speaker-of-the-house/
[7] https://www.cnbc.com/2023/10/02/congress-wonders-if-biden-mccarthy-struck-ukraine-fund-deal.html
[8] https://time.com/6320202/house-democrats-refused-save-kevin-mccarthy/
[9] https://www.npr.org/2023/10/04/1203462629/kevin-mccarthy-speaker-matt-gaetz-congress-vote
[11] https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/03/nyregion/hakeem-jeffries-house-speaker.html
[12] https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/06/us/politics/republicans-speaker-vote-jordan-scalise.html
[13] https://www.wbaltv.com/article/house-speaker-election-explained-mccarthy-ouster/45446103
[15] https://www.npr.org/2023/10/05/1203633021/jordan-scalise-mchenry-mccarthy-new-house-speaker