While Congress relaxes for its two-week Easter holiday, Ukraine is running out of ammunition on the frontlines due to the United States’ lapse in sending military aid. But not to worry—as stated by the quote displayed on Mike Johnson’s (the Speaker of the House) wall, “the only thing necessary for the triumph of evil [i]s for good people to do nothing”[1].
That certainly makes a lot of sense.
On Friday, March 29th, President Zelenskiy explained that if Ukraine did not get the promised US military aid that is currently blocked in Congress, forces would “have to retreat ‘in small steps’”[2]. However, if the front lines break, Russia will be able to access major Ukrainian cities. Considering that Russian forces captured the Eastern town of Avdiivka last month, this means aid is critical [2].
Despite its critical nature, aid is stuck in a political battle in the House, caught up in issues such as immigration. Distracted by having to avert a government shutdown in recent weeks, Speaker of the House Johnson was forced to deprioritize looking at Ukraine aid. But the battle to secure aid has been ongoing since last fall.
How did the country get to this point?
When the war initially broke out, Biden promised unconditional support for Ukraine. To date, Congress has voted for over $110 billion in funding for Ukraine and other national security requirements [3].
However, in fall 2023, as Ukraine started showing signs of running out of aid, Biden requested an additional $60 billion in aid for Ukraine. Due to Republican demands for greater border control, the aid got tied in a battle where many Republicans refused to pass the bill unless it included immigration changes on the Southern border [3].
Finally, the Democrat-controlled Senate passed a bill on February 12. that included $95 billion in aid for Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan [3]. Out of the total spending, $60 billion would be allocated to Ukraine, allowing it to rearm itself as well as invest in military training and intelligence sharing. The bill did not include the previously debated measure to boost immigration enforcement at the US-Mexico border [4].
That’s when the bill hit the House. Before it was passed in the Senate, Johnson had said on social media that it would be “dead on arrival if it reache[d] the house”[5]. Since then, fights have only escalated.
So what now?
Long story short: No one knows. Politicians have been arguing over what they should do since December, and it’s unsure when they’ll actually be able to make a decision. And to top it off, due to the two-week Easter recess, this means that the House won’t be addressing funding until mid-April at the earliest [7].
Despite this, Johnson has claimed that “The Republican-led House will not be jammed or forced into passing a foreign aid bill,” which seems ironic considering that the Ukraine effort is on the verge of collapse [10]. Johnson was one of the majority of Republicans to vote against the funding bill when it was initially introduced into the House [11].
Simultaneously, the Speaker of the House is currently trying to draft his own Ukraine package, which would result in tons of negotiations to make sure it can pass with bipartisan support [7].
Translation: it’s going to take a lot of time.
Many conservatives argue that the Southern border must be secured before aid is sent to Ukraine [7]. In January and February, Johnson demanded that Democrats agree to strengthen border security as a part of the bill, angry at the Senate’s bill which does nothing to address the border question [9]. However, in recent weeks, he seems to have lessened his focus on that, claiming that his focus is getting the bill passed.
Some Republicans also believe that Putin cannot be stopped, and thus think that there’s no point in using taxpayer money against him [11].
On the brighter side, a new proposal, introduced by Trump, is in consideration. This measure, which has received far-reaching support, would have non-military aid to Ukraine sent as a loan that they would have to later repay [7]. Alternatively, Republican Mike McCaul has suggested furthering the Rebuilding Economic Prosperity and Opportunity for Ukrainians Act, which was previously passed in the Senate and would give the president the authority to take Russian sovereign assets frozen in the US and give them to Ukraine. However, top democrats are hesitant [7, 8]. Johnson is also considering splitting Ukraine and Israel’s aid into two separate bills, helping to lessen some of the Republican backlash directed at both countries [13].
To escalate the drama, in a situation similar to Kevin McCarthy’s ousting last October, Trump ally and Republican Marjorie Taylor Greene has threatened to vote to oust Johnson if aid for Ukraine passes. She has already filed a motion to vacate, which means that she can force the vote to oust him next month [6]. This makes it even harder for Johnson to take action since he risks losing the position he worked so long to get. However, a large group of Democrats are promising to protect Johnson if he acts on the Senate-passed bill [12].
On the bright side, the Department of Defense found $300 million in savings that it sent to Ukraine around March 12th, marking the first aid package since December. The department was able to send this since it came from cost savings in previous contracts. This allows the Pentagon to pull weapons from its reserves and sign contracts to order replacements. However, not only is this only enough to last a couple of weeks, but the Department of Defense is currently requesting Congress for over $10 billion to replenish all the weapons it pulled from its reserve stocks. Reporters Tara Copp and Lolita Baldor on AP news reveal that “it wasn’t until recent days that officials publicly acknowledged they weren’t just out of money to buy replacement weapons, they are $10 billion overdrawn” [6].
Translation: This wasn’t close to enough aid and Ukraine is still in dire straits.
Long story short: Congress needs to approve funding now. Unfortunately, despite the urgency, no one really knows what’s going on.
Long live politics!
[1] https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/25/us/politics/speaker-mike-johnson-ukraine.html
[2] https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/zelenskiy-says-without-us-aid-ukraine-forces-will-have-retreat-2024-03-29/
[3] https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/initial-us-support-aiding-ukraine-standstill-2-years/story?id=107482799
[4] https://apnews.com/article/ukraine-aid-congress-senate-china-d7b4846de76a1dfe5d2207b7eb6eeead
[6] https://apnews.com/article/ukraine-supplemental-war-russia-congress-4aa3731543757156858c2211773a5621
[9] https://thehill.com/homenews/4465192-schumer-rejects-johnsons-call-border-reform-ukraine-bill/
[10] https://apnews.com/article/house-speaker-johnson-ukraine-aid-06889e166a5417d5b4bc7795813e37ef
[12]
https://thehill.com/homenews/house/4560400-ukraine-aid-democrats-speaker-johnson
[13] https://www.politico.com/news/2024/03/14/mike-johnson-israel-ukraine-aid-bill-00147108